Upside Running Out Of Room In Metals

While my last update suggested that we still had room to the upside in the metals complex, I think we are now approaching the final squiggle within that “room to the upside.”

GLD has been the better defining chart, with the clearest path we have had for some time.  And, that chart still suggests we will likely see a 5th wave rally.  In fact, we even seem to have a micro [i][ii] structure set up off the wave 4 pullback on the chart, which suggests that wave 5 of i is now in progress.  If this is the correct count, then we should see a gap-up tomorrow for wave [iii] within wave 5 of i.

GDX held its micro support thus far, and seems to have developed a 5-wave structure off that support.  So, if GDX has the exact same set up as GLD, then it would be pointing us towards the 41 region for its 5th wave of wave i.  While this is certainly a bit higher than I had initially wanted to see, it would suggest that wave [5] of 3 can take us higher into our target box overhead on the daily chart after we see a wave ii pullback in the coming weeks.

Lastly, silver has struck the market pivot we have identified as our next target.  But, the micro structure into this target has been exceptionally overlapping which does not provide me with much confidence in the micro structure.  So, as I have been saying of late, as long as the pivot is retained as resistance, then I would expect a wave [ii] pullback over the coming weeks, similar to GDX and GLD.  However, if silver sees a strong break out over that pivot, then that pivot will become support and we can see an acceleration in silver up into the accelerated trend channel overhead in the heart of wave iii.  For now, I expect to see a wave [ii] along with the rest of the complex.

In summary, we are approaching our next topping target with a full 5-wave structure off the June low.  After this 5-wave structure completes in the coming week or so, then I expect a corrective retrace, to be followed by further strength into later this year.  But, if silver begins to extend well beyond the pivot, I think both silver and GDX will have potential for much bigger gains sooner than I currently expect.

GDX-8min
GDX-8min
GDXdaily
GDXdaily
GLD60min
GLD60min
silver144min
silver144min
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.