Unfortunately, Not Much To Add In Metals Analysis

I waited until this evening to write the update, hoping that I would glean further information if we got some real movement.  But, alas, no such luck.

With the amount of overlap in this rally off the recent lows in metals, there really is no high probability path to which I can point – other than ultimately lower.  While the potential for this being a 4^th wave is still just barely on the table, the purple count has clearly been rising in probability.  And, in GDX, there really is no difference at this point between the two counts, other than the purple count should give us a clear 5-wave decline.

But, both gold and silver are still not providing any strong trading cues, so I would not be looking to risk a lot at this juncture.  In fact, as I pointed out a few weeks ago that I was adding some of the individual mining stocks outlined by the MMA analysts that had potential for completing their specific 4^th waves, I have significantly reduced that exposure at this time after some nice gains.  I will again be a buyer on the next decline.

Yet, for now, I think we are left in a holding pattern as the market makes its decision as to how we drop to lower lows.  Whether it will be direct from this region or whether we have to move higher in the purple count before we drop is still a very big open question.  So, the best focus for opportunity at this time is not necessarily to short, but more so to be looking for the next major buying opportunity.