USO: Do We Have A Top?

To be honest, I do not have evidence to answer the question in the title of this update in the affirmative.  While we have finally struck the ideal target and even slightly exceeded it this past week, I would need to see more of an impulsive structure develop off the highs to consider that the market has finally topped in its b-wave rally.

What I find quite amusing is all the news events many of you were posting about how oil is about to rip higher due to Iran or Trump or the Saudis, etc.   Yet, it seems that price may not have agreed. 

Now, many of you would look at that strong drop we experienced at the end of the week and assume we have a 5-wave structure off the highs.  But, to be honest, the initial drop really did not count well as a 5-wave structure off the high.  And, even if we were to assume it was a leading diagonal to begin this decline, we still only have 3 waves down.  So, for me to even begin any consideration of a top being in place, I would need to see a 4th and 5th wave to the downside complete in the beginning of the coming week. 

Until such time, I am going to maintain that alternative b-wave target in the 14.60 region.

Avi Gilburt is founder of