Two Most Likely Paths for Nasdaq

With this breakdown lower here in the Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ), the two most likely paths from here are that we have either topped in all of the wave ((b)) in green or still potentially bottoming in the yellow wave b here.

The structure of the yellow count is far from ideal, but as long as we remain over the 13703 low I still have to allow for it. The green path would, of course, potentially end the correction much sooner, as upon breaking the low at 13703 we would technically have enough waves to consider all of wave 4 in place.  By contrast, the yellow count would still need several more weeks of sloppy action before this wave 4 is all completed. 

The structure of the next move up off of the lows should help give us a better idea as to which path is playing out. We would need a clean five waves up for the yellow count to take hold, whereas any three-wave move would likely just be part of the green count pushing lower.

NQ 2187 60m
NQ 2187 60m
Michael Golembesky is a senior analyst at ElliottWaveTrader covering US Indices, the US Dollar, and the VIX. He contributes frequently to Avi's Market Alerts service at EWT while also hosting his own VIX Trading service.