Tracking The Action Carefully

While this update is based upon the GDX, it can equally apply to the metals themselves as well, and I will update that tomorrow.

But, focusing on the GDX right now, the market has now moved up over the wave (i) high.  And, in order for it to really get my bullish juices going, we would now need to follow through over 101.83 to invalidate the potential for the yellow count.  But, until that happens, the yellow count is still alive and must be respected and tracked.

Moreover, there is also one more potential I am now forced to track and that is a wider wave (2), the path for which is now shown in blue and with question marks.  And, this will become my primary count should this potential wave (iii) rally fail by breaking back below 92.70.  This would suggest a larger a-b-c structure potentially pointing to the .500 retracement region in the 87 region in GDX.   And, if you want a tighter stop on your positions, you can choose to use that 92.70 region as your support.

So, we will still have to approach this market a bit cautiously until we are able to invalidate the yellow count.  Until then, there are still two paths which can take us lower, clearly one lower than the other.  I will try to keep you apprised of my thinking as the structure develops.