Time Is Running Out In This Pullback For Metals
By
Avi Gilburt
With the RGLD following through in the analysis I presented this past weekend, it is telling me that we are likely nearing completion of this pullback in the metals.
Over the weekend, I suggested that RGLD was the clearest indicator that we still need more downside before this pullback/correction in metals completes. It did not take long after that for RGLD to drop down in the 3rd wave of the c-wave of [4]. At this time, my view is that today’s bounce is a 4th wave within the c-wave of [4]. That means I am looking for a lower low to complete the c-wave of [4].
But, with only one wave left to the downside before this pullback completes in the RGLD – which seems to be one of the clearest wave structures – it could mean that time is fast running out for the complex to complete this current pullback.
To be honest, many charts really do not look like standard pullbacks, as they are very overlapping and non-standard structures. GOLD, GDXJ, GDX, NEM, silver and many other charts seem to be taking shape as more of a w-x-y pattern for this pullback. But, the main point is that everything looks rather corrective, which allows me to maintain my expectation for another rally to come.
The one standout to me right now is that GLD may actually have already completed its pullback for what I am counting as a wave iv in that chart.
Based upon most of the charts I am tracking, ideally, I would still like to see that dreaded lower low over the next couple of days. However, I want to note that the next 5-wave rally is going to place me on “BULLISH-ALERT.” That means that, whereas before I could have been viewing a 5-wave structure as only part of a larger ongoing corrective pullback/correction, I am now changing my expectations. With the weakness we have seen this week in the metals, I am now going to assume the next 5-wave rally is going to be the 1st wave of the next major rally phase in the complex. And, that is why I will be on “BULLISH-ALERT” once that 5-wave rally completes.
Clearly, after that 5-wave structure completes, I will need to see a corrective pullback in a 2nd wave, with a rally thereafter over the top of the initial 5-wave structure triggering a very bullish phase in the complex.
Once that next 1-2 structure develops, I will begin to outline and discuss the parameters to discern whether this next rally is a 5th wave off the 2018 lows, or whether we are going to see a major 3rd wave take hold, as I expect we will see.
