I have been trying to give GDX the benefit of the doubt. But, the action thus far is much more indicative of a bigger 4th wave bounce than it is an impulsive move off the lows. So, even though we have taken out resistance, the structure is still nothing that resembles a clear impulsive move off the lows. Therefore, I have to still keep the potential for a lower low on the chart.
In the meantime, both gold and silver have struck their targets for their respect 3rd wave rallies. And, ideally, both should still see a 4th and 5th wave before I can confidently declare that we have 5 up off the recent lows. While there is an argument for silver to already have 5 waves up off the low, I am going to to keep the silver and gold counts aligned for as long as they are both able to hold over support on their next pullbacks.
So, it seems that the metals market is somewhat bifurcated again, and it may be because of some of the individual miners exerting pressure for a lower low on the GDX. But, I am still expecting that by the time we roll through the fall, we should be ready to set up that major rally I expect into 2023.