This Correction In Metals Just Got More Complex

I am sorry to say, but this correction in the metals complex just got more complex.  Let’s start with GDX, which is showing us a rather complex pattern right now.

With GDX dropping in a more direct fashion, it opens the door to two potential paths, ultimately taking us much lower in the coming weeks.   If you would look at the attached 8-minute GDX chart, you will see that we have broken down below the last pullback low with 3 waves so far.  That leaves the door open to either complete all 5 waves down which likely suggests a larger a-wave, which would be following by a b-wave bounce, which could take us several weeks itself.  

The alternative if we do not complete 5 waves down and rally impulsively through the 47 region is that this low in 3 waves completes an expanded [b] wave within an ongoing b-wave.  This is shown in yellow.  In either case, I think we see higher before the c-wave begins to the downside in earnest.

In GLD, I do not think this is the droid we are  . . er . . I mean the c-wave down we are looking for.   There still seems to be a bounce missing before we set that c-wave down up.  And, there are several ways this can resolve similar to the GDX.  So, while I am showing the simplified perspective on the attached 60-minute GLD chart, the smaller degree is not really making it any clear than the GDX chart.  But, as with the GDX chart, I really think it is reasonable to expect more of a rally before a b-wave can be completed.  And, yes, this lower low can even be an expanded [b] wave within the b-wave.  So, if we see a 5-wave rally begin, then I will know which pattern is playing out, but I think that is really academic at that point in time.

Needless to say, silver has still not made a decision as to whether it wants to follow through in yellow or green.  And, I am still left being 50/50 between the two paths.

This would be a good time to remind you that a 4^th wave is the most variable of the Elliott 5-wave structure.  And, the b-wave within the 4^th wave sees the most variability within the 4^th wave structure.  So, I think we will need to be a bit more patient before we will know how the b-wave will take shape.  And, yes, I still think it is a reasonable expectation to still be a seeking the completion to a b-wave one way or another in GLD and GDX before we see the c-wave down.   I do not think this is it yet.  

But, silver is still holding its cards close to the vest and is still retaining both it’s paths as we speak.   And, I am still 50/50 as to which one it will still choose.  But, if I was forced to lean one way or another, I would probably lean green at this time.  I just don’t see a solid enough structure to make the yellow count a high probability right now.