Thic resistance ahead - Market Analysis for Nov 25th, 2022
I have a hard time counting the blue micro A of a of (v) as anything other than 3up, especially in SPX so I am still leaning to the blue path for abc of (v) and that really fits with wave (i) in SPX clearly being an abc move making the whole of circle c of A an ED. But technically ES can squeeze in 5up inside (i) and 5up inside (iii) so if this is the iii of (v) on ES ideally it should get another pop to ~4070 and then the iv-v of (v) toward 4100+.
4101 is still looking like pretty thic resistance, as discussed in the Wed Beginner's Circle video while that is shy of the ideal 100% for circle c at 4150s the 50% retrace of (A) is at 4101 and that is also just past the 200DMA and the upper BB. I think the best potential for getting closer to the 4150s is the blue b-c. That b-wave needs to hold ~3980.
Remember the risk here skews DOWN for at least the larger B of (B) even though we ideally want higher at the smaller degrees. MOST of the count is full and technically SPX already has a nominal high over the (iii) of c of A to count complete. There is also the risk that this is a red 1-2 of (C) or all of a (B) wave since we are close to the 50% retrace of (A) those are alts, but they are alts that should be seen as a big enough risk here that RELYING on a B-wave to hold in the 3700s is not prudent.