We do not chose the path for the market, we isolate the most probable by degree and then look for confirmation.
NQ clearly look like a one-two start to its fifth off March.
As discussed last week ES cannot count as a clean 5up for one. EITHER it is 5up off a truncated low which is very hard to RELY on, or it is an (a)(b)(c) up and this is one-two of an ED for the 5th of (3). There is still an even lessor probability that this could still be a very deep (iv) of a rare 5-3-5-3-5 LD for i, but this most simple interpretation is the the ED. That need not change our larger degree targets for 5 of (3) in the 5500s.