The Metals Market Got Stuck

This past weekend, I provided a detailed perspective of how I view the metals market.  And, as of today, there really is nothing more of substance for me to be able to add.

You see, I still cannot count a clear 5 wave structure off the highs for all charts we follow to suggest that the complex has begun its drop to lower levels.  While the GLD has had a double top, it can easily count as a 4th wave flat, with the second high being a b-wave of that 4th wave flat.  Moreover, GDX has an overlapping structure off its high.  And, neither of them have broken their respective supports YET.

While my primary count still has us in a 4th wave bounce in most of the charts we follow, I do not want to become prematurely bearish.  I respect this market enough to know it may want to surprise to the upside, so as long as we hold support, I am going to allow it to try to surprise us.

However, should we see the charts begin to break support, then we can begin to look to lower levels to complete a 5th wave in this c-wave of wave ii.  Most specifically, I have outlined what the GLD would look like with 5 down off this high, which points it down into the 114 region for wave i of the 5th wave of the c-wave down.  Moreover, this i-ii structure in GLD would be pointing to a minimum of 109, which is the minimum target we have for that final 5th.

The only additional comment I have from the weekend is that there is a 1.00 extension down off the high, which coincides with the .618 retracement of this last rally in silver at 14.48.  So, as long as that level holds as support, I have to consider that silver can still break out higher.  In fact, silver is the one chart that could suggest this market still has much more upside potential.  So, I am still giving it the opportunity to prove itself, especially as long as we remain over micro support levels.

GDX-8min
GDX-8min
GLD 8min
GLD 8min
silver144min
silver144min
NEM
NEM
ABXdaily
ABXdaily
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.