The Meandering Continues - Market Analysis for Feb 13th, 2019
By
Avi Gilburt
With the market seemingly in consolidation mode, there is not much for me to add at this time. So, I am going to first reprint two alerts I sent out today regarding NEM and GLD:
NEM:
I want to note that a move through 34.29 - last week's high - would cause me to view the yellow count as primary. That does not necessarily mean we see a direct break out as it still may only be a 5th wave in wave [i]. But, it would make it much more clear that the probabilities have shifted to NEM having potentially bottomed already.
But, as long as we remain below that level, I can still maintain the perspective of another bigger drop to complete this wave ii pullback off the 2016 high.
This is the stock I am watching for strong cues about the GDX and the "weaker" miners in general for now.
GLD:
122-122.40 is support that can act as a 4th wave, and still provide us a set up for a higher high in wave (i). Below that support is the initial indication that wave (i) has completed. But, it does look "unfinished" to the upside.
These are the most significant additions to my overall perspective at this time.
As far as GDX, I have added some “color” to the yellow count, to outline how the alternative count can play out if we are able to break out of the downtrend channel.
Lastly, silver seems to be bottoming out in the [a] wave pullback in the near term, which means that I am going to expect a [b] wave rally to take shape soon. And, clearly, as you can see from the alternative count, it can also be the alt (5), which would then reset the market to see an a-b-c structure for wave [ii].
That makes the 34.29 level in the NEM the most focused upon level in my analysis at this time. How we handle that level in the coming week or two will be most telling. Through it, and I do not have a higher probability short term perspective to hang my hat upon in order to see a lower low in the GDX or the NEM. The market should make its decision very soon.
