The Biggest "October Surprise" Yet May Be Imminent

Since the end of September we've been on the lookout for October surprises and have definitely seen a few.  One lingering question still unanswered is if we will be taking the more serious path out of the two described in that initial article.  Zeroing in a bit, the weekly signature for 18-31 October was noted to resemble the more serous path.   Now, on a daily scale, that same signature is appearing for this coming Sunday-Monday.  As mentioned in previous articles, at any time other than this, such a pattern would imply a record shattering mass-casualty event sometime Sunday-Tuesday.  However, in the most recent article I also brought up the possibility that this time it perhaps could be pointing to the life or death seriousness with which people have expressed feeling as they stand in line for hours to vote and await the announcement of who will become the next U.S. president.  Another possibility perhaps, and I'm reaching because I want to find any other potential manifestation of this, would be a large Covid spike or extreme Covid focus that leads to the same net emotional impact of a mass-casualty event (Covid-19 is in fact a mass casualty event).  One last idea, on a more positive note, would be that the current situation is taken serous enough that an agreement on a stimulus bill finally comes through... although that really is stretching it.  Bottom line, this pattern tends to be about people dying.

Update 26 October: The DOW is down over 900 points, at least 5 of Mike Pence's aides have tested positive for Coronavirus, and there is a surge in new Coronavirus cases in the U.S. and Europe.  

Below are the monthly, weekly, and daily social mood charts used in this analysis.  For further explanation of the top two charts and how this data is collected, please see one of the two earlier articles linked to above.

Dr. Cari Bourette is an analyst at, where she provides her proprietary market mood analysis in our flagship service, "Avi's Market Alerts."