That’s Five Up

I can keep tonight’s metals update VERY simple.  As I outlined in a very early morning post about the metals, I was still looking for a 5th wave higher high to begin quite soon.  So, yes, ladies and gentleman, that is now 5 waves up off the most recent lows, and a strong signal that a 3^rd wave has potentially begun for 2024.   

The action today in GLD, GDX and silver seem to provide us with a 5^th wave rally.  And, yes, that is a strong indication that the rally we expect for 2024 is setting up.   

Yet, as you know, I really would like to see even further confirmation.   And, that means I am looking for a corrective 2^nd wave pullback over the coming weeks.  Should we see a clearly corrective pullback, then we will have to prepare for a major “melt-up” rally, which will be signaled once we break back out over the high we create for this rally.  That break out will signal the heart of a 3^rd wave, which may last a number of months – and that would just be the 3^rd of 3^rd wave.

So, now that most of the market is probably thinking we are about to lift-off, I think it is more reasonable to expect a pullback to begin as we look towards next week.  And, as long as that pullback is clearly corrective, then we have to begin plans for the start of a melt-up phase, likely sometime in the spring.