Subtle Shift Back Over Resistance In Metals
By
Zac Mannes
The pushes higher in Silver Futures (SI) and Gold Futures (GC) further reduced but did not yet eliminate the risk of more complex consolidation before continued upside.
That said, on SI this is looking more like a leading diagonal (LD) now off the Apr 21 low as a wave i of 3, so I have switched the possible c of a wider 2 to a yellow alt. The LD for green i is highlighted in blue for color-coding effect. The sub-waves fit perfectly for an LD, and the b of (iii) is even a nice triangle. Both the (iv) and the circle ii should hold the low 15s now.
GC might try to follow a similar structure of a iv-v for a slightly smaller LD for a new wave (i) of circle c of 3 off the May low.
The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) had multiple opportunities to consolidate more in the larger wave two, but hasn't. It seems even less likely now with this subtle shift back over resistance for the metals.
In the accelerated/nested green count this should be the i-ii start to a fifth of a sub-wave iii inside larger 3 of (3) off the May low. Ideally, the consolidation as ii already completed at 33.30, but certainly this count would have issues now if the May low at 31.35 were to fail.
By no means would that derail the bullish count because this can still be an extension of the 5th of purple (1) even though it is getting well past "normal" Fib levels for just a wave (1). Indeed, many of our individual charts still seem to prefer that count, although they might get dragged up over pivots too kicking and screaming without the most reliable wave twos.
But some of those still do look like only the 5th of (1) or an equivalent, and perhaps those do get something like a two on the next GDX consolidation, which IF in the green really should be from the 39-42 region and hold the mid 30s.
The S&P/TSX Global Mining Index (TXGM) is harder to count as a nested setup because the first moves really look like part of an LD and not a (1)-(2)-1-2. But if this is already into the wave three, it should continue toward green (3) at 110 and really not get under 79 at any point now.
Similar story with the NYSE ARCA Gold Bugs Index (HUI.X), but possible in both to get a bit higher in the wave one and still try at least more sideways consolidation as a two. Perhaps there will be a bit more rotation within the sector in this next stage of rally and not everything participates at the same time.
