Stuck In The Middle
As I outlined yesterday and discussed in the live video this morning, I have added a resistance region to the GDX and GLD charts. Allow me to explain here as well.
The question still remains if all of the first wave off the recent low has completed. And, we even have to consider if it is possible that the respective 2nd waves are done, and a 3rd wave is starting earlier than expected (no, I do not think this is likely, but I need to know where I am wrong in this view). So, assuming that the latest consolidation is a 4th wave, I have outlined the resistance by identifying the .618-.764 extension of waves 1-3 off the low. That is the maximum resistance I would expect if we are going to see a 5th wave higher, as a 5th wave is usually not larger than .618-.764 the size of waves 1-3. And, if we break out through that resistance, I am forced to assume we are in the 3rd wave much earlier than I had expected.
Now that I have explained how I identified the resistance on the GLD and GDX 8-minute charts, I want to note that I still view a move towards those resistances as an alternative.
This means that I am still looking for a [c] wave down to complete a 2nd wave pullback. Yet, if you look at the 8-minute charts, you will see that we are basically stuck in the middle of support and resistance. Hence the title of this update.
Other than what I have outlined above, there is nothing further I am able to add to the analysis. I still need more of a downside move, especially in GLD, before we would see enough of a pullback in the daily MACD’s to suggest that we have sufficiently reset the technicals to support a 3rd wave rally. So, for now, I am sorry to tell you that we must still have a bit of patience before we are able to see our ideal set up develop in order to add some aggressive long positions for a 3rd wave rally.