Stopped In Our Tracks
By
Avi Gilburt
Today was an important test, especially in silver. So, before I discuss silver, let me note a few things about GDX and gold.
First, I still think that GDX has the strongest potential for having bottomed. Yet, the micro structure of the current rally off the lows still is not 100% clear. So, I am going to reserve any analysis of the micro structure at this time until we see how the next pullback takes shape. But, it is entirely possible that we are already heading up to complete wave [1] of 3. For now, I am just going to watch the action before making any further determinations.
As far as gold is concerned, we have certainly gotten up to the next resistance region, and the question now remains whether we will see a break down below the pivot on the 8-minute chart. As long as we remain over that pivot, I can reasonably view us as being in a similar posture as GDX is potentially showing. But, should we break down below the pivot, then I have to assume a lower low will be seen before the next major bull phase begins.
This now leaves me with silver. And, today, we struck the a=c region off the recent lows, and reacted quite strongly to the downside. Normally, that is an indication that a corrective rally has completed, which argues strongly for the yellow count. Therefore, unless we are able to climb back over today’s high, I have to assume that the yellow count is going to point us lower in the coming weeks.
In the past, I have discussed various times in history when the metals market has been bifurcated. So, I will not say that simply because GDX is rallying that I would expect the same in silver. Rather, we are going to continually track each chart on their own. And, for now, I am allowing GDX and gold to present bullishly, whereas silver has made strong indications of one more bearish phase before this correction completes. Yet, I will continue to maintain an open mind about each chart, and should we see some diversion from what I have outlined above, I will certainly make you aware of it as soon as I recognize it.
