Still Waiting For 5 Up


While I can go into excruciating detail regarding the metals, I really do not think it is warranted at this juncture.  To be honest, without completing 5 waves up, a lower low can still be seen, as I outlined in the weekend update.

In silver, we still even shy of completing wave [iii] of the first wave up.  And, if we turn back down below 23.40, the probabilities of a lower low increase – unless of course, we morph into a leading diagonal.  But, since I do not rely upon leading diagonals, I will simply note that we should hold 23.40 if we are going to get an appropriate wave [1] off the lows.

In GDX, we really have a messy structure, but likely need a bit higher before we can even consider it 5 waves up.  But, again, this one is still a bit unclear.

GC is an absolute mess.   In fact, if GC now breaks down below the potential b-wave bottom struck earlier this week, it opens the door to a decline towards the 1700 region.  But, as long as we hold it, we can continue higher to complete a leading diagonal.   But, I would personally not touch this chart until we get an appropriate upside set up.  And, we are no where near that right now.  In fact, this has the greatest immediate bearish potential at this time.

This still brings me back to the GDXJ which has a clearer structure, similar to what we are seeing in silver.  Not much has changed since the weekend, other than the market trying to stretch towards a 5th wave off the lows.  But, again, this still has to see a corrective wave (ii) pullback.  And, if the next decline is clearly impulsive, then we have to prepare for a lower low towards the 33 region for the 5th wave of c.  So, overall, the same parameters still apply.

It is still going to take several weeks before the metals provide us with a clearer picture as to whether it wants to provide us with a near term upside break out set up.  For now, I am cautiously optimistic.  But, based upon the larger structures, it would seem that this complex is getting set up to rally alongside the equity market as we look towards 2022.

GDX60min
GDX60min
GDXJ
GDXJ
GC5min
GC5min
silver144min
silver144min
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.