Still Very Precarious In Metals


I wish I had better news for the bulls, but I cannot say the market is instilling a lot of bullish confidence in me right now.

You see, our Negative Nelly Box is still very much containing any upside surges.  Moreover, as long as we hold over 31.47, we even have a potential for another rally to push us up to the top of the box.  But, that would simply count as a bigger a-b-c corrective rally, and not change the picture much.  

However, if the market were to drop more immediately below 31.47, and follow through 30.70, then resistance becomes 31.50 and we have an initial signal that wave [iii] down is in progress.

With regard to GC, it is still having issues with resistance.  And, should we drop below the market pivot on the 5-minute GC chart, then it also signals that a 3rd wave down is in progress, with 1778 becoming our resistance point.  To invalidate this potential, we are going to have to break out over the high struck the other week in the 1837 region, which could then place a much more bullish perspective on the complex.

As far as silver is concerned, I just do not have a micro structure suggesting a bullish resolution due to the recent overlap in the structure off the recent low.  We would have to see a slightly lower low followed by a reversal back to the upside in a CLEAR 5-wave structure to suggest a potential bullish resolution to this region.  Otherwise, the deeper retracement presented on the weekly chart of SLV is still quite in the running.

So, for now, there is still too much of a bearish structure being presented in our charts to maintain a strong bullish bias.  Instead, I remain quite protective until the market provides us with an invalidation of the bearish potential.

GDX60min
GDX60min
GC5min
GC5min
silver144min
silver144min
SLVweekly
SLVweekly
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.