Still Trying To Complete 5 Up

Over the weekend, I tried to get many of you to still maintain a bit more patience until the market provides us with the next set up:

“Well, one thing I have learned about metals is that you do not get in their way when they are running, in the same manner in which one avoids standing in front of a run-away train when it is moving forward. 

So, I have no wise words right now other than suggesting we let the market run until it does not. Once we begin to see a reasonable pullback/consolidation which takes more than a few days, then we can begin to make certain assessments of the structure of the rally. But, as I have been pounding the table regarding GLD, the market is still in a very bullish posture, which I expect should take us the rest of 2024 and well into 2025.”

And, I am still of the same opinion.   I still have not seen a multi-day consolidation which would suggest a 2^nd wave is taking shape.  And, with today’s push higher, I still do not have evidence that the first 5 waves up off the low is done.

Silver seems to be taking the preferred path to the ellipse overhead for the larger degree wave [i] with today’s rally.  Yet, I can even still consider this as part of just an extended wave 3.  So, I still am looking for a multi-day consolidation to solidify the count.

And, GLD seems to be stuck within wave 4, as today’s rally counts best as a b-wave within wave 4.  Ideally, I am still looking for one more push higher towards 205 to complete wave [i].

Lastly, while I can present a count for a full 5 waves up thus far in GDX, I really think it best counts as only a completed 3 waves up, as I would prefer to see one more push higher towards the 31 region to complete a better 5 waves up off the recent lows.

Now that we are trying to complete 5 waves up in the metals, I want you to remember that we still need to see a corrective 2^nd wave pullback in the coming week or two, followed by a rally over the high we create in this 5-wave rally.   When that happens, we can strongly declare that the bull market move we are expecting is in progress, as that would likely signify the heart of a 3^rd wave rally.  And, I think it can still be weeks away before we see that confirmation.

So, while the metals market has been a good place over the last few weeks, I think the best is still in front of us.  But, I want to get the confirmation outlined above before we allow our confidence to soar.   Call me cautiously optimistic