Still Some Questions - Market Analysis for Dec 12th, 2019

Despite many charts looking so nice off their recent lows, I have to note that GLD is still a question to me as to whether it has bottomed.

While we saw a spike of the 139.70 important resistance region, GLD spiked back below it just as quickly.  And, at this point, it looks like it may be setting up as a micro (i)(ii) structure for the 5th wave lower.

Now, I am certainly not going to turn “bearish” in the bigger picture.  As you can see from the daily chart, while a 5th wave lower will likely scare most investors into believing it will break down, all it will be doing is providing us a 5th wave lower low with clear positive divergences evident on the daily chart. 

With silver and GDX still retaining potential for having struck their lows, I really do not have strong clarity on either at this point in time.  GDX turned down from its micro pivot, and silver still needs to complete its micro wave ii, and rally again through today’s high to make me more of a believer that it has bottomed.

Overall, I am still in “bottoming mode” for the complex and am still quite bullish the metals complex as we look towards 2020.  Nut GLD is still keeping me somewhat in check until we can either get that clear 5th wave lower, or we can strongly break out over resistance.

GLD 8min
GLD 8min
GLDdaily
GLDdaily
GDX-8min
GDX-8min
silver144min
silver144min
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.