Still Missing A Wave
By
Avi Gilburt
Well, if you have been following along, you would know that we are awaiting a 5-wave rally off a low to provide us with a major break-out set up in the metals complex. And, thus far, both gold and silver seem to be lacking that 5th wave, as you can see from the various charts.
Starting with gold, I would have to say we are now completing wave 4. And, as long as we hold 1955, I am still looking for that 5th wave higher, as you can see on the attached 60-minute GC chart.
What you will also notice on that chart is the pivot box. Normally, wave i of [3] targets the .382-.618 extensions of waves [1][2]. And, the .618 extension is the bottom of the pivot. The top of the pivot represents the .764 extension of waves [1] and [2]. And, once we move through that pivot, then it makes it likely that we are in wave iii of [3]. But, for now, I am looking for the market to approach the pivot to complete wave i, thereafter to be followed by a corrective wave ii pullback.
Should the market complete this set up in the coming weeks, then it will put me on a break-out-alert. And, should we then take out the high of wave i, that puts us in a melt-up situation, which can be better seen on the daily GLD chart attached.
Silver is also struggling to complete its 5 waves up too. But, I can count it similar to gold, as it is trying to complete its 4th wave pullback. But, please keep in mind, a failure to get that 5th wave higher high leaves the yellow alternative count on the chart for now. And a break down below 21.90 before we get that 5th wave higher high would suggest the yellow 5 is taking shape.
Now, GDX is a bit more of an issue. We are still woefully short of its .618 extension. So, I am assuming we are developing as a [i][ii] structure within its wave [1], which actually projects to the top of the pivot on the daily chart. And, as long as we hold the support box noted on the 8-minute GDX chart, I have reason to continue to look higher for now. Taking out the high of wave [i] should set this chart up for a big catch-up move.
So, for now, I am still in a wait-and-see mode. I want to see a 5th wave higher completed in both silver and gold before I begin to go on break-out-alert. Should this set up develop in the coming weeks, then it portends a major bullish move in the metals complex for 2024. But, please do not get FOMO. Allow the set up to develop before we get too excited.
