August 1, 2019
Summary: They say you don’t need good pitching if you can hit. Dodgers display good pitching and hitting in this matchup with the Padres.
|Game Winner||SD (35% chance)||SD +180 (36% chance)|
|LAD (65% chance)||LAD -200 (67% chance)|
|Point Spread||SD +1.5||SD +1.5|
|LAD -1.5||LAD -1.5|
|Total Runs||Over 8 (59% chance)||8|
*Average bookmaker odds at time of publication
In-Game Windows of Opportunity
Point Spread LAD+9 (78%)
Total Runs Over 4.5 (81%)
Total Runs Under 13.5 (75%)
What the numbers mean:
The consensus odds have Los Angeles installed as a 67% favorite to win the game; SportsMood gives them a 65% chance of winning. The consensus odds are giving the Padres 1.5 runs, and SportsMood agrees.
The consensus odds have Total Runs at 8, but SportsMood places the chances it will be a higher scoring game than that at 59%.
If the Padres do win the game, there is an 78% chance they will win by no more than 9 runs. This is relevant if the Padres take an early lead and the in-game odds move to give the Dodgers 9 or more runs.
If scoring is sluggish in the beginning of the game and the Total Runs line moves to as low as 4.5, there’s a 81% chance the scoring will pick up and go over this number. Conversely, if there is a lot of scoring to start the game and the Total Runs line moves to as high as 13.5, there is a 75% chance scoring will slow and go under this number.
Relative Stat Projections – Supplemental Charts:
For the Extremely Curious:
Methodology: The game projection above was based on sentiment analysis of patterns in 8 mood qualities (the same 8 used for MarketMood) found in each team’s public presentation and expression in the days prior to the game as posted in team social media. The included charts were built from correlations found with relative amounts of these 8 qualities in team sentiment prior to the game, and are relevant for this game only.
Data collection and analysis by Daniel Reader.
Note: this is being shared with the excitement of presenting our cutting edge research in systems and the relationship between sentiment and near future events. No inference should be made as to endorsement of gambling or wagering on sports events, and whether or not that is suitable for any individual.