Small Changes - Market Analysis for Jun 15th, 2026

With the rally we are seeing today, I wanted to keep you apprised of where I think we are so that you can be appropriately prepared when the next buying opportunity arises.

There are only two small changes I would make to the analysis from the weekend.  

The first is in GDX. Due to the size of the move higher, I think it is clear that the recent low completed the 3rd wave of an ending diagonal in the c-wave for GDX.  With it hitting a low just beyond the 1.382 extension of waves 1-2 to the downside, this is a very reasonable bottom to the 3rd wave in a diagonal in metals.  Moreover, with the bounce now providing to us overlap into wave 1 territory, we have enough waves in place for a completed 4th wave bounce. While the micro count can still allow for a few more squiggles higher, I am now looking for a final decline and the buying opportunity I have been stalking.

The target for the 5th wave is traditionally the 1.618-.1764 extensions of red waves 1-2, which is the 68.50-71 region.  But, since wave 3 was relatively deep for a diagonal, we could see a drop down as deep as the 2.00 extension in the 64 region.  So, overall, that is our buying target between 64-71 on the next decline. And, I would potentially view a doubling from that region as a reasonable target for wave 5.

The other small change is that I can also view the wave iii of the c-wave in gold as complete, with this rally also being its wave iv.  In the weekend analysis, I was questioning whether we see a lower low in wave iii, but since we already dropped just past the 1.236 extension, I think we have fully satisfied a wave iii target.  Therefore, as with GDX, I am going to primary look at the next lower low as the completion to this a-b-c structure which began in January.  As with GDX as well, the ideal target is the 1.618-.1764 extension region, which is in the 3840-3905 region.  But, it would not surprise me to see an extension down the 2.00 region just north of 3700.

Silver is still a bit more of an issue, as this rally still counts well as wave iv within wave 3 of the c-wave in an ending diagonal. But, I am going to reiterate that buying silver under $60 represents a very nice long-term opportunity.  So, I would not suggest waiting for the next 4-5 to complete, as it may not, as this could very well complete as a more complex w-x-y which would suggest the next lower low is THE bottom to this correction.

And, to reiterate, at this time, I still do not see the purple count as the highest probability, but I am keeping an eye on it.