Silver Stretching Its Legs

As I just posted in the trading room as an alert, silver is finally trying to stretch its legs.  But, I still think the evidence suggests this is a final move in this rally rather than the start of a new one.  As I noted in the live video yesterday morning to the full-time membership, the last consolidation just below us really counts best as a triangle.  And, we know that a triangle most commonly takes shape in either a 4^th wave or a b-wave.  That means that the move out of a triangle is most often the final move in a trending move whether it is a 5^th wave or a c-wave.  That supports my expectation for this being a final move in this trend for now.

Therefore, while I am not shorting it, I am looking for a reversal signal which would begin with an initial break below 35.  But, please keep in mind that the bigger picture still suggests a larger move to the upside has begun.  I am just expecting one more pullback in a wave (2) ideally.  And, you can see that bigger picture from the older SLV weekly chart I have been presenting.  I still expect that major break out which is why I am not shorting it.  Yet, I think the evidence suggests one more pullback can be seen before that major move is in progress.

Along the same lines, I think GLD/GC seems to best count as a expanded b-wave structure.  However, as I also noted in the live video, I would not be shorting this either until we see a CLEAR 5-wave decline, which would be wave 1 of the c-wave I ideally still expect. The same applies to GDX as well.

While I have been asked if it is “possible” that this is just an extension in the respective 5^th of 3^rd waves in both GLD and GDX, I still think that it counts best as an ongoing 4^th wave for now.  And, even if it is such an extension, it still suggests that a larger 4^th wave will be seen before the final 5^th wave rally is seen in earnest.  So, I am personally not trading this aggressively to the upside and using it as an opportunity to reduce risk, especially in mining stocks which are reaching their targets.