For a number of years, silver enthusiasts have been quite sullen due to the lagging price of silver, as gold had been taking the lead. Well, things seem set up to change.
As I write this, I am seeing two paths for silver to see a significant break out and the potential start of a large 3rd wave rally. As you can see on the attached 8-minute chart, the most immediate set-up presents us with a 1-2, i-ii structure off the November 13 low. The only issue I have with this potential, as I have outlined before, is the wave i would have to count as a leading diagonal, which is not a terribly reliable impulsive wave structure. So, the other potential is that we are in an ending diagonal c-wave of a larger wave 2. Ideally, this c-wave should hold the 22.75 region.
Alternatively, as I outlined over the weekend, if we are unable to hold the 22.75 support, and, instead, break down and follow through below 22.45, then it opens the door to the yellow count, pointing us down towards the 18 region for a larger degree 2nd wave completion. But, I really do not see that as the most likely outcome at this time.
Therefore, as long as we hold the 22.75 support, and then break out over the high of wave 1, it will likely trigger a larger degree break-out which can point us towards the 29 region quite quickly, which would signal the initiation of a major 3rd wave rally, which can last through most of 2024, ultimately taking us well north of 40 in silver for just this larger 3rd wave.
Gold is similarly postured, but gold is already in its 5th wave off the 2015 lows. And, I am seeking a 5th wave rally right now towards the 2100 region wave i of  of that 5th wave.
In GDX, I am looking for price to break out through the pivot outline on the 8-minute chart, which should signal that we are rallying in wave [iii] of wave , which can better be seen on the daily chart.
What I think we may glean from these charts is that we are on the cusp of a significant break out throughout the complex. But, what is even more evident is that such a break out will likely be lead by silver. Moreover, since this break out in silver will be an initial wave 3 break out, then all further pullbacks will be 4th waves of various degrees. This may allude to all the pullbacks in GDX and GC/GLD being shallow pullbacks, even though they may be 2nd waves of various degrees.
So, before we jump the gun, let’s see if silver can take out last week’s high, which would be a strong indication that this major break out could very well finally be in progress.