Silver Break Out?

Silver has now taken out the resistance I noted over the weekend.  Of course, this now opens silver up to starting its run to back to its all time highs.  But it will clearly not be direct.  For now, I am still going to give the (b) wave just a bit more room.  But, if we take out this adjusted resistance box, then we are either in a big wave 1 of wave (3) or we are actually in wave 3 of (3).   Both counts are quite reasonable if we are already breaking out.  Therefore, the next buying opportunity I would look towards IF . . again, IF we are breaking out is wave 2 or wave 4.  But, unless I have a solid pattern in place, I usually do not get overly aggressive.

In the short term, we can still see one more push higher to that box, as I have no clear 5 waves down off the overnight high yet.  And, the best we can even get is a leading diagonal down for now.

Gold is still not convincing me of an immediate bullish scenario in its 5^th wave.  You see, the only way one could even consider its 4^th wave as having completed is through a rare w-x-y structure, with the y-wave being a triangle.  In fact, I think I may have seen this structure once in the last two decades.   Needless to say, I still cannot view this as the most probable path in gold.  Rather, I am going to still consider this part of a very complex b-wave, with the (b) wave of the b-wave being the triangle we have been tracking in that sideways action over the last three months.  And, until we see a break out over the 1.00 extension (which is the top of the box in the GC chart), I am forced to still seek a c-wave down.

I have the same issue in GDX, but I do not even have the benefit of the w-x-y structure noted in gold.   It still leaves me wanting for a 4^th wave, which means I am forced to still consider this either an expanded b-wave structure, or just an extension in wave 3.

So, again, without any CLEAR 4^th wave in place in both GLD/GC and GDX, I have a hard time assuming we are in the final 5^th wave in the complex.  It also suggests that we can still see a sizeable bout of weakness before that 5^th wave is ready to take us into a final rally off the 2015 lows.