At this point in time, I think the metals update is rather simple.
GLD has now moved down to the lower end of support I noted over the weekend. We have a full pattern to the downside, even within the wave (v) of v. Silver as now moved down to just over its lower support at 15.95. So, we have officially “arrived.” The only question now is if buyers are going to step in at this key juncture. This is a question to which I do not have an answer. But, if they are going to step up to the plate, this is the point in time they should do so.
Since wave (2) cannot retrace more than the start of wave (1), and wave (1) in GLD began at 117.40, that is our natural point of invalidating the immediate bullish set up we have on the daily chart. Also, should we break 117.40, that would not immediately turn me bearish, but it would certainly place me into a neutral standpoint, depending upon where and how the metals finally do bounce/rally. But, any break of 117.40 would require me to wait for the next (1)(2) set up in the complex before turning bullish again.
The one interesting factor in all of this is that GDX has not even struck 21.50, my the less the 20.20-21 support below us. This strength in the miners is an interesting development, but I would imagine the relative strength in miners may dissipate if GLD were to break its current set up.
So, it is up to Mr. Market at this critical juncture. We have a very full pullback at this point in our counts, which suggest the next move should be to the upside. The question will be if GLD breaks 117.40 before that upside move occurs or not.