Quick Update - Market Analysis for May 13th, 2026

As it stands right now, we have a set up to take the metals much higher.  But, they do not seem to be set up in the same manner.

I posted the charts below in silver trying to outline the micro count in this rally, although I cannot say that I have a high degree of confidence in the smaller degree count, it is the best option from those I am seeing.  And, as long as we remain over the wave ii low on the 5-minute chart, then I am looking higher to complete wave 3 of this purple c-wave.  And, until I see a 5-wave decline to signal that the c-wave lower has begun, then I am going to continue to look higher, as the ideal target is the upper end of the 144-minute target box for this purple c-wave.

As far as gold and GDX are concerned, they have their respective 1-2's set up for a 3rd wave in this c-wave.  So, I assume they will catch up to silver in the same manner in which silver caught up to them during the rally into the January high.

So, until we break a support OR see a clear 5-wave decline take hold across all 3 charts, I am forced to look higher in the evil purple count.

But, I want to again remind you that trading within a b-wave structure takes on additional risk due to the inherent variability often seen during b-waves.  In fact, within b-waves we often see several false starts to c-wave rallies within those b-waves.  Will we experience one now?  There is no way I can answer that. As I always say, I am a simple analyst, not a prophet. 

I was asked by a newer member why I view it as "evil."  And, it is pretty simple.  Just as what happened in 2011, when the market rallies in corrective fashion off an initial corrective decline, most analysts and market participants begin pounding the table that the bull market phase is back in swing.  But, when you see a corrective bounce off an initial leg lower, that should not be your primary view.  Rather, it is a corrective bounce which sets up a potentially strong c-wave decline that takes us below the prior lows struck on the first legs down.  And, ultimately, this causes extreme despair across the market, especially amongst those that have been confident that this rally is the resumption of the bull market.  Hence, it is truly evil. And, this is following the playbook of 2011 thus far.