Quick Update - Market Analysis for Dec 1st, 2025

I want to note clearly that I have no reasonable way to count the rally into the mid-November high as a 5-wave structure, as it is VERY clearly a 3-wave structure to me.  And, unfortunately, that leads to too many interpretations for me to maintain a reliable stance on an exact path forward.

There is potential that this is a leading diagonal for wave 1 of the wave (5), as per blue.  There is potential that we are in an ending diagonal for wave (5), as per yellow, especially since we are now approaching the 1.236 extension for what can be wave 3 in an ED.  And, there is still strong potential for this being part of a larger corrective structure for wave (4). So, as I said, there is nothing highly reliable in this structure, other than a reasonable expectation for a pullback one way or another. 

We will have to see how the market declines and where it provides an a-b-c pullback to be able to make some decisions in the bigger picture.  And, when I have a less reliable structure in place, I will usually reduce risk even further, especially on aggressive positions.

But, please take note that each time the MACD has reached these heights we have seen a strong smack down not long thereafter.  

Gold seems to very clearly be completing an a-b-c rally for what I think is a (b) wave.  The only other bullish potential is that wave (5) is taking shape as an ending diagonal and we would need to take out that resistance box to make this our primary count.  But, that would be unusual for a 5th wave in metals.  So, I am looking for a 5-wave decline to 4167 or lower to signal that the (c) wave down has begun.