Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Oct 16th, 2026

Due to the size of this rally and the fact that it seems we only had 3 waves into the last low, I am going to modify the blue count to be a 4th wave with an expanded b-wave low.  That means this can still push a bit higher and still be wave (iv).  But, take note that if all we see is a corrective pullback from up here, and then break out through the 89.72 level, this opens the door in a big way to the correction having completed.  

So, as long as we remain below 89.72, I am looking down for another decline.  If we get the i-ii and then break out over 89.72, then I would begin to view the bottom as being in place for wave (2).

Also, note that this modified blue count is the same flat potential I see in gold.

And, despite the height of this rally, it is still best counted in silver as wave (iv).

So, I think it is wise to consider some type of protection if you do not want to suffer another potential draw down until the bull pattern fills in, such as described in the GDX i-ii potential in green.