Quick Metals Update - Market Analysis for Jul 26th, 2023

I wanted to send this out before the Fed announcement, which will likely act as a catalyst that will settle the region within which we now find ourselves in metals.  And, I am going to use silver as our example.

Thus far, we ONLY HAVE 3 WAVES UP OFF THE RECENT LOWS.  That means that this rally can easily morph into a corrective rally, pointing us lower than where we were in June for a more protracted 2nd wave pullback, as we have discussed before.

As you can see in silver, we have a rally off the potential wave iv low, and we have an almost a=c move off the low.  If we do not continue higher to complete all 5 waves, and break down below 24.95, that is an initial micro warning that the upside may not follow through.  And, if we break back below 24.67, it makes it much more likely this is a corrective rally.

So, it would mean that you may want to consider how much risk you are carrying right now.  Keep in mind that should we get a higher high, it likely will be followed by a pullback.  So, I doubt you will miss much if you choose to lighten your load here  . or you can choose to hedge your positions.  Up to you.  I just want you to understand the risk presented right here.

Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.