Quick Metals Update - Market Analysis for Jul 17th, 2018

With people frantically communicating to me how gold is certainly dropping to $700 right now, I thought it would be a good time to send out just a quick update.  And, no, that is not my primary perspective. 

While my expectation years ago was that gold could drop to the 700-1000 region in its larger degree correction which began in 2011, I still think that the correction ended at the end of 2015, just shy of my target for gold.  That makes it likely that we are only in a 2nd wave correction.

Last week, I sent out an update to emotionally prepare you for this potential drop should we break 117.40 in GLD.  And, even though I tried to prepare you for this emotional environment, it certainly seems as though the emotion is still getting the best of many in the market. 

But, when I review the charts, I am seeing how many miners are still looking very positive, and divergences are being seen across many charts I am following.  While I can always be wrong, this does not look like a “crash” scenario to me, especially as everyone seems to be now expecting some huge downside in gold.  In fact, today, I even saw $4 targets posted by some for silver.

Yet, when I review the charts, as I noted over the weekend, we may still see some weakness in the coming week or two, but I just have a hard time seeing the extreme bearishness that most in the market are seeing.  So, for now, I intend to stay the course.  Again, while I can still see some further squiggles lower before this c-wave completes, I don’t see much more than that from the bearish side of the market.

Tomorrow, I will go into more specifics.  But, as long as ABX remains over 12, I do not intend on joining the other market participants in “freaking out” at this time.

Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.