Quick GLD Update - Market Analysis for Apr 15th, 2019

I wanted to send out a quick GLD update to the entire membership due to the lower low we are getting this morning. 

With this lower low, I can identify a reasonable count for 5 waves off last week's high at 123.77.  That now places us in a position where we have competing "potential" 5-wave structures pointing up and down.  That clearly leads to a complex structure and does not provide me with comfort for the set up for higher in the immediate perspective.

That means that much will depend on the next smaller degree "bounce" off this lower low we are striking today.  If that bounce is clearly corrective, then I will likely be adding some shorter term protective puts to my positions.  The stop would clearly be at 123.78, because if we break out over 123.77, it would invalidate the potential that the drop was 5 waves down off the 123.77 high struck last week.

But, if we do break down in this structure below 123.77, then it would give me more concern about the yellow b-wave triangle.  While I am still expecting a larger degree rally in the coming year - even in yellow - a potential b-wave triangle here would keep me on my toes once that rally completed 5-waves up to the target above.

As far as counting this rally off the 2018 lows as an impulsive structure which has completed, I have to say that it "can" count as such, but I have a hard time placing strong reliance upon it.

At the end of the day, the next bigger decline we get in the complex is likely going to be a buying opportunity before we see a major rally I think into the 2020 time frame.  But, if we get see this micro structure point us down sooner rather than later, then I am going to be much more concerned about what that rally really is in 2020. 

Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.