Pullback Still In Progress

As I noted earlier today, the consolidation we have been seeing over the last 4 days is getting a bit large to be a 4^th wave in the c-wave of the 2^nd wave pullback.  So, I am going to make this VERY simple.

Should the market push down tomorrow to a lower low, then I can view that as a 5^th wave to potentially complete the c-wave of the respective 2^nd waves.  However, if this consolidation continues, then I have to assume that it is actually a b-wave in the respective 2^nd waves.  And, it would likely take us at least into next week before we would consider seeing a completed 2^nd wave, as we would still need to see a c-wave decline.

As far as GDX, it has also become a bit too large to be considered a 4^th wave in the 3^rd wave.  So, I have to assume that an immediate decline would be a 5^th wave in a diagonal for the c-wave.  Otherwise, we will likely move into the b-wave potential as noted above for the metals.

Now, as far as getting aggressive, well, you have a choice.  You can buy an initial tranche as we complete the next decline – whether it is a 5^th wave in the c-wave or whether it will be a bigger c-wave decline.  But, I would want to see the next 5-wave rally towards the highs to have more assurance we are about to embark on the heart of a 3^rd wave in the metals complex.   And, that will be a signal to add even further tranches, as I will cover when it develops.

But, overall, take note that the MACD’s on the GDX and GLD charts have almost reached their respective resetting targets.  Moreover, the MACD on the 144-minute silver chart is setting us up for that positive divergence lower low I want to see.  So, it would seem that many things are finally lining up to set us up to embark on the heart of a 3^rd wave in the metals complex later this year.   For now, maintain a bit more patience and allow the ideal set up to take shape.