Potential Break Out - And Some Minor Adjustments

With the week starting with a holiday, it has been a shortened trading week.  But, I wanted to provide a quick update as to what I am seeing in the charts.

Right now, my primary count is maintained that GDX is in a 4th wave consolidation, with the high today being the high for a b-wave within the wave 4.  If this is indeed the case, then we should be heading down starting tomorrow, and will likely bottom within the next few days in wave 4.  Moreover, as I noted that my ideal scenario would see GDX not break back down below the 17 level for this 4th wave, and even in the bigger wave 4 flat scenario, we should be holding over that level.

However, I have noted the alternative count in blue on the 8 minute chart.  This shows us only completing 3 waves off the recent lows - with the first wave being a very questionable impulse, if at all.  But, if the market can consolidate in a wave iv and take us higher for a wave v, then I will be counting that as wave (1) in wave 5, with all of wave 5 of I taking us to the 23 region.

As far as GLD and silver, I am modifying my support levels on both, due to the current calculations if their respective b-waves topped today.  Silver has an a=c target below of 14.80 as support, and GLD as 112.50 as the general region which should hold for a 4th wave.

Lastly, I want you to note that I dropped the target for wave I in silver down to a minimum of 17.25.  But, we still need that break out over 16 to give us a 5th wave up, or else we risk heading down one more time to lower lows.

GDXdaily
GDXdaily
GDX 8 min
GDX 8 min
GLDdaily
GLDdaily
silver daily
silver daily
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.