PLEASE Zoom Out - Market Analysis for Jun 21st, 2023
By
Avi Gilburt
Based upon the “sentiment” I am seeing about metals, one would have thought that we have seen a major drop in the market. Yet, all we have seen is the various charts making nominal lower lows thus far. In fact, we have been range bound for quite some time. And, if this price action is causing you to become emotional, you have to ask yourself if you are too heavily allocated on the long side in your positioning.
What I am seeing from an objective perspective when I look at the daily charts is a bottoming structure. Yes, we have made lower lows, and still can drop a bit more before this is done. But, the overall structure is one that looks to be completing and likely not starting any major downside structure.
When we look at the gold chart, it seems quite clear that we are seeing some form of ending diagonal down here, as the market is still attempting to bottom. This structure, along with the positive diverging technicals on the 60-minute chart, still likely portends a strong reversal when we finally bottom out.
While that last rally in silver is quite large for a wave iv, I really have no other reasonable way of viewing this chart at this time. So, I am making a logical assumption that we are in the final squiggles of a wave v, which is completing this c-wave.
Overall, nothing has really change my perspective in the bigger picture. We have been stuck in this c-wave of a 2nd wave for quite some time, and it seems that some of your nerves are fraying. But, this is why I have always strongly suggested you allow the market to prove the next wave degree before deploying all your allocated funds in an aggressive manner.
So, while the metals do what they do best – provide extremes on both sides of the price action – I think the reasonable way to look at this is from a more zoomed out perspective, which suggests that we are still bottoming out in a c-wave of a larger degree 2nd wave.
