Ongoing Breakout Attempt After One Month Of Bullish Consolidation

Jul 12, 2023 - 9:32 AM EDT

Given today’s CPI breakout/acceleration, immediate supports have moved up significantly and the market is telling us to be prepared for further range expansion in the coming days due to timeframe alignment (monthly, weekly, daily, intraday) all pointing higher at the moment.

If the regular trading hours (RTH) open above or sustain 4480/4500 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES), let's see if buyers are able to keep lifting this towards next targets 4525/4535/4550.

Note that the 4500s represent the April 21, 2022 area where a massive rejection started (-15%). We need to observe how price reacts vs. this market memory level.

If RTH open below or sustain below 4480, buyers become at risk of a breakout failure due to the structure. Below 4480, opens prior day’s levels of 4465/4444/4435 again.

Lastly, a daily close above ES 4500 is a must complete task for buyers today given the context+the ongoing setup. Failing to accomplish this goal could be a warning sign.

Ricky Wen is an analyst at ElliottWaveTrader.net, where he writes a nightly market column and hosts the ES Trade Alerts premium subscription service.

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