Oh So Close - Market Analysis for Nov 4th, 2020

While I really cannot offer any further insight into silver and GLD, as I still maintain my prior analysis, GDX has been the chart of great interest.  And, when we have a confirmation in GDX, I think it will go a long way to turning our immediate perspective quite bullish in the complex.  So, let’s focus on the GDX in this update.

With the rally off the low, I have to say that waves 1-3 are an absolutely gorgeous structure that I would normally see within a standard Fibonacci Pinball structure off a low.  Yet, I still have no confidence in waves 4-5.

You see, there is some potential with the morning action today that waves 4 and 5 may have completed with the 5th wave being a truncated top.  But, as those that have followed my analysis for some time would now, I have a hard time relying upon truncated tops as strong cues. But, the potential does exist.

However, my preference would be for today being a much more defined 4th wave pullback, which has held over the important 38 support region thus far. But, it means that we will need to see a 5th wave rally likely by tomorrow.  

Now, if the market has indeed completed a 5-wave structure with a 5th truncated wave, that would suggest that this is a wave [ii] pullback in yellow already.  Personally, I cannot view that as a strong potential at this time, but it is something that is certainly sitting in the back of my mind.

Ultimately, it means that if the market holds over 38, and rallies to a higher high in the 40 region, it would make this chart immediately bullish, and would strongly suggest that the bull phase has returned in the overall complex.  I would then view that primarily was wave [i] off the wave [4] low, and expect a wave [ii] pullback which would also provide us with a wonderful inverted heads and shoulders pattern as well.

Yet, because I currently only have a potentially truncated 5-wave structure, I still have to view the market as having some potential for that lower low still, especially should we break down below 38.  

So, in summary, I am still cautiously optimistic, and maybe even a bit more optimistic than I was last week.   But, if the market can provide us with a 5th wave higher high in the coming 24-36 hours, then I would be much more comfortable in abandoning the potential for the lower low, and turn rather immediately bullish in the overall complex.  Until that happens, I am forced to remain cautiously optimistic, with some concern for that dreaded lower low.  But, overall, whether we get that lower low or not, there are many signs that this market wants to begin to move back into the next bullish phase of the market, as presented by the wave [5] of 3 in the GDX as we look towards 2021. 

GDX8min
GDX8min
GDXdaily
GDXdaily
GLD60min
GLD60min
silver144min
silver144min
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.