Not Yet Convinced - Market Analysis for Jan 24th, 2024

While silver has struck the top of its support box, and GDX has dropped deep enough for its 2^nd wave to be completed, I am still not yet convinced that the bottom has indeed been struck.  And, the one chart that keeps me looking lower is still the GLD.

As you can see from the attached 60-minute GLD chart, I am still looking for the 5^th wave down to complete the ending diagonal [c] wave.  While I am uncertain as to whether wave 4 is done, or if we have one more loop higher to the downtrend line before wave 4 is complete, I think wave 5 has a nice confluence of targets in the 183 region.   So, until we see a 5-wave structure into the ellipse overhead, I am going to expect that 5^th wave lower low.

In silver, I have a similar count that is reasonable, and am viewing it as my primary count right now, at least until it is able to prove a bottom is in place with a 5-wave rally through the 4^th wave resistance box.

As far as GDX is concerned, I am genuinely unsure as to whether its low has been struck, but I am going to assume there is strong potential for one more lower low as well.

For now, I still maintain we are in a "bottoming" posture, and many chart suggest a lower low is still the ideal expectation before we begin to turn up in the 3rd wave.