No Room Left - Market Analysis for Apr 10th, 2024

Yes, there really is no room left on the upside before the breakout in GDX and silver begin in earnest.  But, as long as we remain below this week’s high, there still remains potential for more of a pullback.

In silver, that would be wave 2 of wave [iii].  In GDX, I am slightly changing my count and now viewing the pullback as wave [ii] within wave iii of [3] of 3.  Alternatively, I would view it as wave ii, if the pullback turns out to be a bit deeper.

The main point is that the next time we take out this week’s high will likely suggest we are in the heart of the 3^rd wave in both GDX and silver.   Once GDX moves through 34.80, that would make it quite likely, with a confirmation move through the daily pivot putting the seal on the move.  

In silver, we would need to see a move over this week’s high, and a follow through over 29 would likely point us to the 32-34 region rather quickly.

As far as GLD, I am still taking the same position as I did in the last update, and simply taking a wait and see attitude until we see the next larger consolidation to provide guidance as to where in the smaller degree wave structure we reside.  Until then, I am simply sitting back and letting it run.  As long as we are over 205, I am maintaining the impulsive Fibonacci Pinball structure outlined on the daily chart.  However, depending upon how extended this move becomes in the coming week or two, I may have to adjust our targets higher.

For now, the market is at a maximum region from which I can still reasonably expect one more 2^nd wave pullback.  Blowing through this region would likely solidify the various charts being in the heart of the 3^rd  wave.