Nightly Cryptocurrency Report: First Sign of Flush or Shakeout?
By
Ryan Wilday
With the breakdown last night my primary view is that our final decline has begun. However, markets are not that easy, and I am adding orange count to both of my charts here for one more try in corrective upside. The reason for this is simply so that no one is caught shorter than they want to be, higher than they want to be. With the supplemental notification, must of what I said remains true or at least valid. I am treating this trade like a 'lazy short trade' remaining net short in my short term account until resistance is taken out.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin should see NOT higher than $6385 for further downside ideally and is wrapping up 1 of wave three. Over $6500 in 5 waves raises the probability that we incline as far as $7095 in orange. Although February channel is on top of us, and thought we may see 'overthrow' we should remain quite constrained even if the orange count is in play.
Ethereum
In my immediately bearish view of Ethereum, we still need one more wave down in C of 1 at around $185 before we pull back in Circle 2. Currently, roughly $140 is the cleanest projection for the ultimate bottom bottom but believe that it can show anywhere between $122-160. However, to maintain immediate downside we ideally hold $209. But we really need 5up over $227 to increase the likelihood that we take the alt route in the higher orange count before our last decline begins. So, we're working in some tight spaces here and pressure remains down for now.
GBTC
Again, per the supplemental notification this morning I am puzzled by GBTC here. It appears to be very close to target and it strongly suggests an incline is needed before resting in the $6's for a turn. This is one chart that gives hint of the orange counts being in play.
ETHBTC is holding it's bottom pattern still.
