We have an important test today of the bull case,with the little pullback we had, which so far is very proportional to the micro 5 waves we have off recent lows. So far bulls past the test, but that doesn't mean they ultimately fail. Until I see 5up off the micro support on my micro charts, I'm going to be cautious. Further, we remain between local support and resistance, so we need to see a move through one or the other. We really are in an inflection point, for both Ether and Bitcoin, but particularly Bitcoin, as I see it. I also want to emphasize that the bull setups call for a micro third up next in the micro. So, a strong rally should commence soon. If it does not, that is cause for doubt.
I WANT TO REMIND THAT I HAVE NOT TURNED WHOLESALE BULLISH, I AM ONLY TESTING THE BULLISH CASE FOR NOW. I find it key to look at markets in both ways in inflections zones . so that it will reveal to me which side wins, as price develops.
As I've said, below $6300 in 5 waves, and over $6620 in 5 waves will lead the way. Off, the $6200 low, our potential Z wave low, I have 5 waves. I now have a potential WXY correction. Holding $6328 is bullish. Five down below $6275 opens up the 'trap door' for lower. As shown, a 5 wave move to $7119 would be the expectation for the bullish case.
The micro in Ethereum makes more of a case for the bear resolution than Bitcoin. I can call the drop today a leading diagonal. However, the bull case has a chance over $199 with an early warning it comes to pass, below $203. Another issue is that if this is 1 of c of iii in our bullish case, it doesn't quite project where it should. However, as long as we hold $199 correctively I'll give it a chance. Extensions can make up the overhead difference in the projection.
NOTE: I am using the bullish case in the micro charts, and the bearish case for the primary zoomed out view. This reflects how I am working. I'm building up the bullish case as a test, to see if it proves out, while keeping my mind on where the risk is...still down. I am not trading hard in either direction here until the exit path out of this inflection zone is clear.
GBTC also has a nice 5up, and needs to hold $6.87 for the bull case. That count is shown in red.
ETHBTC appears to have bottomed in wave 2.