Nightly Crypto Report: No Follow Through, YET
By
Ryan Wilday
Before I get to the Bitcoin and Ethereum price action, let me first note that most would do well not to try to trade this bull market in and out. We are not in a bear market, and managing the micro action of a corrective wave is a losing game for most.
So, until we are in a real bear market again, which would be indicated by an impulsive move below $4300, most would do well holding (or HODLing, as they say). But holding on for dear life still means you must manage risk. Do yourself a favor if you are not a trader by profession. HODL when appropriate. Vacate when not. Learn the difference.
1. This is a bull market. Don't chop yourself up with every micro count pushed out. Find a reasonable sized position you can comfortably keep.
2. If we do happen to cross a pivot of magnitude to signal a bear market returned ($4300), don't HODL. Save your capital.
Now to price action...
After watching today's action in Bitcoin I have to doubt downside follow through and give some nod to a move to $13700. This is a qualitative view as I am seeing far too much overlapping action here to suggests we've started downward. Note the orange trendlines. I am watching for the possibility we instead head for a triangle in this region and then push towards higher ground. That said, below $11,220 invalidates this view. $10,600 remains support.
Ether is at a key point here. As noted I had to suggest last night that if we take out the recent highs we won't go quietly. I had a chance to work out this potential in orange, and I actually find that we could break out to new highs from this setup as this would likely be circle 1 of a third wave. However, we are overlapping in both directions in Ether. So, honestly, any view here does not have the greatest probability. I can interpret our move down as 5 waves, but it is a diagonal. If retrace correctively, and break below $205, my leaning is down. If we break over white B wave, I see the 'gonzo' setup, which means breakout.
GBTC has little to add here. GBTC did break support where Bitcoin hasn't. But it also is 'sluggish' in downside. That leaves confidence in the downside expectation in a lurch.
ETHBTC deeper into support. I expect a bounce soon.
