Nightly Crypto Report: Holding Steady
By
Ryan Wilday
Micro:
Ether seems to have started its fourth, but will Bitcoin follow?
Bitcoin
Breaking $50,035 would be the first indication that circle-4 has started and $47K is support. However, will not be surprised by a push to $54K before circle-4 starts.
Ethereum
Ether possibly completed wave-iv. I prefer one more dip to $2690 to tap the lower channel. A sustained break of that level will place doubt on the blue path to a confirmed bottom in (ii). However, technically the blue path is valid down to $2296.
ETHBTC
ETHBTC is still pulling back in circle-2 and ideally turns toward 0.057 without breaking 0.052.
ARKB
ARKB will be covered again on the 20th when the market reopens. On Friday, I wrote:
If Bitcoin is pulling back in circle-4, the calculated ARKB chart will follow and $47 is support.
Intermediate Views
Bitcoin Intermediate
Bitcoin is in a bullish cycle that should take it to the $125K region, as long as over $19,000. Zooming into the daily chart is trying to work up to a sustained break out over the 2023 highs. Black A should reach between $50K and $65K. Sustaining over $65K makes a more direct move to $125K in the red count the higher probability path.
Recent action moved support in the red count at $36K. Breaking $36K confirms the black count.
Ethereum Intermediate
Ether is in a bullish cycle that should take it to $10,500 provided it holds over $1250. Where Bitcoin doesn't have other support between $19,875 and a bearish cycle, Ether has one support level below $1250. That level is $675, the 50% retrace of the third wave off of the 2018 low. However, at this point, I consider that support level less reliable than $1250. And, if $675 breaks, Ether should drop to $300 before another bullish cycle can begin.
ARKB Intermediate
We do not have enough data from ARKB to project a count at this degree. So I have created a calculated value of my global average chart with a multiplier equal to ARK shares (0.001004). It may fluctuate and will need to be adjusted periodically for management fees. But it should get us close to key fund levels based on Bitcoin's structure.
