We have a new 2019 all-time high again, with a solid break into five figures. Who thought we'd see that in 2019?
Well, if you were a member of this board in December 2018, you at least saw it as possible (or should). According to the most orthodox view of Elliott Wave, we now have FIVE WAVES OFF THE DECEMBER LOW. What does this mean? It's a bull market. That is, we have a bull a market as long as we hold over $4300 from here.
The best and clearest target I have is $13,425 right now for a top of this move off the December. But I would like to remind, and also speak out of two sides of my mouth: I am not calling a top yet, and yet risk is immense if this five waves complete here. Further, $13425, the level I mentioned, is the .764 retrace of the entire 2018 bull market. This is further confirmation that we are in a bull market.
Note, that while BTC often behaves differently, most assets see a deep pullback within the range of the previous bear market. That means a deep retrace is normal, referring to the wave 2 pullback that can reach as low as $4300 comfortably. I've included my previous 'naked count' simplified down to the essential long term labels. You'll note the clear five waves, not yet complete. And, if we see $13425, and retrace in a shallow manner, we can easily see 6 Digit Bitcoin. I'm jumping ahead. But the point here is that we can get a deep pullback soon, but it will be the single biggest opportunity in crypto in the last 18 months. I have no idea how long wave 2 will take. A few weeks? Many months? Shallow? Deep? I do not know. But I want to be ready.
Ok now to the current action....
Bitcoin should get a pullback but.... Just note after study, that if we cross $10,300 with little pullback I can suggest that we are in a direct move toward the $13K region. TBH if I look at the current 1H bar, the orange count, reflecting this extension, looks to be in play. And, until $8751 is breached I say it is likely. If that level is breached, $7985 is the next level of support in the white (2).
Ethereum is doing a great job of extending towards $400. Given we are dealing with a potential diagonal since December, more caution is needed. But immediate support is $280 for my more aggressive red count. However, until we break $245 I am looking up toward $400 in white count. I need to refine targets on this one as we are dealing with a diagonal. I'll post that as clear.
GBTC has already come into the next box. I am wondering if we see a potential move to the $20's but I still prefer $15 and we'll know soon whether we see extensions. Through $16 suggests the $20's are in play.
Nothing to report on ETHBTC but a small move off b.