Nightly Crypto Report: Detour Well Underway
We now have 5 waves higher in Bitcoin making the 'detour' higher the primary view before a flush lower. This syncs Bitcoin to Ether nicely. As discussed on yesterday's webinar, when we get to a completed path higher I'll include support needing to hold for the bottom of this entire correction to be in. Where that lies exactly depends on how action fills in higher.
Five waves completed in Bitcoin, and now I expect a wave 2 lower, for which support is $30,375. As discussed on the webinar it is remotely possible we are in wave 3 already. But if the case, I still expect a pullback into the smaller box on my micro chart, at least to $33,700 (Bitmex). This alternate works much better in Ether than Bitcoin.
Ether should start to correct in wave-(2) which shows support at $1810. Like Bitcoin, it may already be in wave-(3) and holds $2040. I still find this second option unlikely, but it works better in Ether's structure.
ETHBTC appears to have started wave-ii and should hold 0.059 for this count to continue as defined.
We'll look at GBTC tomorrow.
Bitcoin Intermediate View
Bitcoin rally to $125K to $150K in this cyclical bull market. The bull/bear pivot lies at $24,000 currently, giving Bitcoin some room. As it stands now, a break of the bull/bear pivot confirms that Bitcoin's rally since 2019 is not impulsive, but is a diagonal. If $24K breaks, a wave four in that diagonal may still hold at $17-$20K, however, it would lower the target for the fifth wave. If we break below the August 2020 low, the bull market is likely over and a multi-month decline would be in progress. The diagonal potential is captured with the red alternate count.
Provided that we fill in all five waves on the daily chart, I’ll count our 2019-2021 rally as an extension on circle-3, which I previously believed to have topped in December 2017.
After this cyclical bull market finally completes, probably in early 2022, Bitcoin should start a large, perhaps multiyear, bear market in its primary 4th wave. You can review my weekly chart here or alternate views, but all views suggest a cyclical bear will begin in 2022.
In micro, it appears we are taking a detour to ~$45K before a final flush, although when we arrive at those heights, I'll include support in an alternate bullish count.
Ethereum Intermediate View
Ether is in a cyclical bull market, which will reach close to $12,000. Recently I shared two alternatives for my weekly chart after that top.
Ether’s structure between March and August 2020 was left in a very questionable state and is key to assessing where the bull/bear pivot lies. The best I can tell this key pivot lies at $1120. But should that level break, I’ll refine the channel to watch for the fourth wave to hold at the lower parallel of the channel.
After five waves are complete, now likely close to $12,000, we can expect a cyclical bear market. However, where that bear market is likely to take Ether, depends on my two alternate views of the weekly chart. One view will take Ether below $80 in a large wave 2. The other will hold $80 in the 2nd wave of a large third wave.
Just as Bitcoin is taking a detour, so is Ethereum in micro, likely to $2700. But a flush to $1100 remains the expected outcome for circle-IV. And, as in Bitcoin we'll consider more bullish options as we arrive at $2700.
GBTC Intermediate View
I expect the 2019-2021 cyclical bull in GBTC to culminate in a five-wave rally to the $150 region. This five-wave rally is most likely the first wave of a large third wave. However, the discordance in the long-term GBTC and Bitcoin charts, due to GBTC's shorter life, leaves that questionable. I’ll explore long-term options in a supplemental write-up.
I include alt red count which is analogous to the same alternate in Bitcoin.
GBTC should follow Bitcoin in the northward micro. It appears we'll reach the ~$30 before a drop to $18-22. Should we see another breach of $24 as indicated, GBTC will confirm it is in the red alternate count on the daily chart. As we reach $30 we'll consider more bullish options.