Nightly Crypto Report: Caution On Ether
By
Ryan Wilday
Overview:
We saw a strong push higher in Bitcoin and Ethereum, but both coins did not finish 5 waves off recent nano lows before coming down strong. This means we are still using the same support levels. I only count the top of impulses, not B waves, in my supports. But with respect to Ether, I now offer a solid warning. The push we have higher is far more suggestive of the red count on the 6-hour chart, as detailed further below. Finally, provided we stay consolidating in this region, we have a good chance GBTC fills that C wave lower as expected on Friday.
Bitcoin
Because Bitcoin topped in a B wave last night, I am still using $10,300 as support. I added a little to my holdings now that I have a good landmark. We may hold this region, but a drop to $10,450 will give me further reason to add. Because we are showing a strong running, or expanded, flat as indicated by the high B wave, I expect the next push to achieve a price level between $12,500 and $13,000. Also note that I don't see in Bitcoin the same warning I have for Ether, so I have kept the white sub-wave breakdown on my 6-hour chart. The equivalent fib level of $454 Bitcoin is $20,150, so you can see how, fib for fib, Bitcoin is lagging. And, while this all may seem academic, remember that the full 5 waves of the first of the third wave should top under the .618 and not get past the .764.
Ethereum
As with Bitcoin, Ether topped in a B wave last night, so I am still using $293 as support for wave (4). I entered a very small scalp in Ether and will add at $300. The next push should bring us to above $454, which is the .764 extension in Ether. As we have not completed 5 waves, I must warn that the current structure is far more likely to be the red B wave. So, I've edited the sub-waves that were in white, in favor of red. Now, please don't start shorting Ether until our rolling swing support, the red rectangle, is breached. And, really, there is no reason for concern above tight support at $293. But I must ask you to play with caution. We've seen a strong move, but it is indicating risk of exhaustion. Risk is not certainty, until support breaks. Again, over the upper pivot puts me in an impulse to $1900.
ETHBTC
I still count us in circle-iv in ETHBTC, and though we saw a spike down overnight, it is not convincing as a finish of this fourth.
GBTC
I have nothing add with the market closed, but I am assuming, provided we don't see a strong overnight push in the coins, that we'll be able to buy another tranche near $11.35.
