Nightly Crypto Report: Bears Take Over the House
By
Ryan Wilday
With five waves down in GBTC and Bitcoin, the bear scenarios have taken hold until we break back over $12.34 GBTC, and $11,190 BTC. I prefer to see one more 4th and 5th in Ether, but it has broken support in a potential five waves. I have flipped our colors and focused this afternoon on developing the bearish counts. These scenarios are likely to subdivide into scenarios, all bearish as I zoom in and out of my work on the 6H charts. This is the first expectation based on simple projections.
Bitcoin
We do not have a strong sign that this five waves in Bitcoin has bottomed, but for now $10,920 is resistance for (B). Note I'm using ABC's in this structure as I'm tracking a first wave that is three waves, suggesting our drop is a diagonal. It may also mean we are in an ABC in the large triangle and both of those scenarios will work their way into the micro, but for now this is the simplest expectation.
Ethereum
Ether broke through support in a potential fifth wave, but ideally sees another 4th and 5th toward $290. Ether has moved in a clearly impulsive structure off the top so I am using an impulsive projection to $156. If you recall, it was the first chart in which I suggested a top is in. However, we may morph into an ABC and the next level I see that likely is holding the large blue box below instead of extending through to the larger five waves. The latter targets $156, while an ABC may stop at $208.
ETHBTC
We have a potential hit on a circle-3 bottom in C.
GBTC
We finally can say GBTC broke support in five waves. I highly suggest reading this thread. suggesting why I am going to look for a long term bottom in the $6-7.50 region. However, I'll rest on my typical tactics for bottom watching: positive divergence, impulsive reversal, and the MOMO algo firing a signal.
