Nightly Crypto Report: BTFD Day
This is a BTFD day. I'll let you look up the phrase on Google if you don't know it. But basically, we have a good solid pullback into the support region. I'm not going to tell you that this is definitely going to hold. That would suggest I can predict market behavior. However, I can determine the most probable market structure. And, I win this game by trading skew with those levels. That's to say when I am most aggressive near defined support, my risk is minimized, while the distance to targets, now increased, maximizes reward. As one mentor of mine said, it's working 'trader math in your favor'. Do you want to trade this way too? If so, you have to put away your fear and buy when things are ugly. And, you'll do well as long as 'aggressive' doesn't reach an outsized risk level. Therefore, you must count your risk to where the setup invalidates and not trade larger than you can handle, should the market hit that level and you have to take a loss. It really is that simple. What are you going to do?
We are in (C) though the market had been stubborn about taking the dive. My levels are the same. Ideally, at this point, we don't breach $52,266 in Circle-B, and our setup is valid over $50,450. Over $58K should signal that a bottom is in.
I am still long 100% in my core.
Ether has taken a dip in C of (B). This is great, though I am still blown away by the overextended (A). Ideally, Ether holds above 1753, and a drop below $1658 spells trouble. Invalidation comes with a break of $1544. That's quite a distance downhill from here. Over $2100 should signal a bottom being in.
I added Ether positions over the weekend.
One more wave to 0.039 I will consider five waves and a strong sign we are in the third wave.
We have a very pretty setup in GBTC with a drop in wave 2. I want to see $42.50 hold but $40.40 must hold for this setup to be valid. Over $51 should signal the bottom is in.
I remain long GBTC. I will stop out of all GBTC shares below $40.40.